In this solo episode of the Edge Dwellers Café Podcast, Ben Habib maps out five broad potential scenarios for the future of the Kim regime in North Korea—(1) state failure and collapse; (2) managed systemic reform; (3) popular uprising and revolution; (4) coup d'état; and (5) externally-imposed regime change—critically evaluating the logic and probability of each scenario and consider the probability of each. This podcast is a teaser for a larger twelve-part video lecture series from Ben's undergraduate subject “Contemporary Politics of Northeast Asia: North Korea."
00:05:31 What happens now in North Korea?
00:06:59 Scenario mapping and the folly of prediction.
00:11:38 Scenario #1: State failure and collapse.
00:14:56 Levels of state decay in the DPRK.
00:17:27 Fragile North Korea 'muddled through'.
00:19:13 Scenario #2: Managed systemic reform.
00:21:34 Lessons for North Korea case from USSR, China and Vietnam.
00:25:37 Piecemeal adjustments to economic management.
00:28:21 Scenario #3: Popular uprising and revolution.
00:31:03 A North Korean spring: Comparing the DPRK with Arab Spring Egypt.
00:42:45 Scenario #4: Coup d'état.
00:43:28 The Kim regime's coup-proofing strategies.
00:46:05 Under what conditions might a coup occur?
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